Tuesday, May 23, 2017

May 2017 stock update

The stock market continues to go up and act super wild ever since it started becoming markedly irrational since election night 2016. The main bellweather stocks that this blog follows such as Fedex or AXP or WMT and many others are very high. Tech stocks are particularly what led the rally with Amazon and Google and Apple at extreme highs. Same with Netflix and slew of other techs that are not doing enterprise services. Apple being a huge weight has not only moved up but its movement in the upward direction has lifted many an indexes way up. Banks are also on highs with some investment banks getting a quite rebound in this run up. Remaining sectors are stabilising the gains that they had got in the recent rally. Whether they are able to hold onto them is something that time will be only able to tell. One thing is clear when there is a fall and when the dust settles this is going to leave a lot on boom and dust induced coma. The excess right now is a clear parallel to 2007. It is hard to predict even beyond basic common sense on the direction and extent these days. I bet the quants and analysts in banks are just as much scratching their heads like any regular person is. Of course this being present you can make a choice to trade in it or just stay away from it. I think index funds with lesser weights or optimized weights and decent relative volume vs net market volume is the better tool as opposed to the individual stocks. I dont think we can rule out a spectacular fail something big sometime in near future. And this is not going to be one of those sucker banks stuff. Rather I am talking something big and established. If it were up to me that would be Tesla beating up the big three car manufacturers from detroit. Already they have been surprassed in both market cap and innovation. Revenue is just a function of this. We all saw what a Model S generated in terms of revenues and interest. Same with other industry which is why Tech attracts the most of Venture capital and startup funds.
That said, all sectors has scope in automation or partial automation or complete takeover by AI. Medical and insurance sector is already highly computerized and even further scope is not that hard.

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